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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to PIT 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-20-P.Strong.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP