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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 4-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.34 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model