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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2024-11-24 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SF
32.3%
GB
67.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.198 vs Brandon Allen (SF) -0.331 EPA/dropback (SF starting Brandon Allen in place of Brock Purdy)
  • SF offense: +0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 21
–
GB 25
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SF

Tatum Bethune LB Out Knee
Nick Bosa DE Out Hip
Jacob Cowing WR Out Concussion
Kevin Givens DT Out Groin
Brock Purdy QB Out Right Shoulder
Charvarius Ward CB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Trent Williams T Questionable Ankle
Jon Feliciano C Questionable Knee

GB

Jaire Alexander CB Out Knee
Edgerrin Cooper LB Out Hamstring
Colby Wooden DT Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 10
–
GB 38

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:42 TD GB (7:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 00:16 FG GB (:16) 17-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. SF 0 – GB 10
  • Q2 06:37 TD GB (6:37) 8-J.Jacobs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – GB 16
  • Q2 01:05 TD SF (1:05) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – GB 17
  • Q3 04:32 TD GB (4:32) 76-K.Telfort reported in as eligible. 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – GB 23
  • Q3 02:17 FG SF (2:17) 4-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell. SF 10 – GB 24
  • Q4 11:03 TD GB (11:03) 8-J.Jacobs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – GB 30
  • Q4 04:18 TD GB (4:18) 10-J.Love pass short left to 18-M.Heath for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – GB 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:03) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 73%

    (:16) 17-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:40) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to GB 22, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 29 for 7 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%

    (:15) 19-D.Whelan punts 37 yards to SF 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-R.Pearsall to SF 25 for 13 yards (53-A.Mosby).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 56%

    (10:51) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (29-X.McKinney).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:32) 19-D.Whelan punts 48 yards to SF 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-R.Pearsall to SF 25 for 13 yards (90-L.Van Ness). PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%

    (2:17) 4-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:54) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to SF 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-R.Pearsall pushed ob at SF 31 for 20 yards (58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on SF-35-N.McCloud, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 31.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:56) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 56 yards to GB 24, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-J.Reed to GB 37 for 13 yards (41-J.Graham).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:45) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to SF 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-R.Pearsall.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (5:40) 10-J.Love up the middle to SF 7 for 2 yards (94-Y.Gross-Matos).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:24) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass short left to 15-J.Jennings to SF 38 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 77%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 31-Em.Wilson right guard to SF 29 for 1 yard (69-E.Anderson, 54-F.Warner).