Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Green Bay Packers 24

(14:56) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 56 yards to GB 24, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-J.Reed to GB 37 for 13 yards (41-J.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.21 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model