Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 9
Green Bay Packers 31 – San Francisco 49ers 10
What Actually Happened
(5:40) 10-J.Love up the middle to SF 7 for 2 yards (94-Y.Gross-Matos).
The Three Options
GO
+3.46 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.31 EP
- 33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.28 EP
KICK
+1.59 EP
- 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
