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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 38 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 31-Em.Wilson right guard to SF 29 for 1 yard (69-E.Anderson, 54-F.Warner).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.09 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model