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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 32

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(:16) 17-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model