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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 43

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 29 yards to TB 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.17 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model