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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2024-11-24 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

TB
59.4%
NYG
40.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Tommy DeVito (NYG) -0.202 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.139 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Tommy DeVito in place of Daniel Jones)
  • TB offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
NYG 19
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

Tykee Smith S Doubtful Knee
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Hamstring
Zyon McCollum CB Questionable Hamstring
Mike Evans WR Questionable Hamstring
Greg Gaines DT Questionable Foot
Troy Hill CB Questionable Ankle
Tristan Wirfs T Questionable Knee

NYG

Micah McFadden LB Questionable Heel
Malik Nabers WR Questionable Groin
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Questionable Wrist
Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR Questionable Achilles
Darius Muasau LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 30
–
NYG 7

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:39 TD TB (6:39) 70-R.Hainsey and 50-V.Vea reported in as eligible. 44-S.Tucker left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 12:06 FG TB (12:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill. TB 10 – NYG 0
  • Q2 06:26 TD TB (6:26) 7-B.Irving up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – NYG 0
  • Q2 00:20 TD TB (:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – NYG 0
  • Q3 03:49 TD TB (3:49) 1-R.White right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 29 – NYG 0
  • Q4 11:30 TD NYG (11:30) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 30 – NYG 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 80%

    (9:35) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NYG 25 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:47) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to TB 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:41) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to NYG 20, Center-86-E.Deckers. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 28 for 8 yards (37-T.Thomas; 98-A.Nelson).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:07) 17-W.Robinson left tackle to NYG 37 for no gain (0-Y.Diaby, 54-L.David).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (12:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:11) 6-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to TB 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 16 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 43%

    (3:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 29 yards to TB 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 23%

    (7:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 43%

    (5:18) 16-T.Gill punts 33 yards to NYG 10, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:34) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to TB 46, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Palmer ran ob at NYG 39 for 15 yards (82-D.Bellinger).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 76%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to NYG 30 for no gain (0-B.Burns; 41-M.McFadden).