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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:35) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to NYG 25 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model