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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to NYG 30 for no gain (0-B.Burns; 41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.73 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model