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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 59

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to TB 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model