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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 63

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) 17-W.Robinson left tackle to NYG 37 for no gain (0-Y.Diaby, 54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.37 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model