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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 7-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model