Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- DEN defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Jameis Winston (CLE): -0.010 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CLE on 3 more days rest than DEN
- CLE defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
- Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 13
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:16 TD DEN (4:16) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – DEN 6
- Q1 01:12 TD CLE (1:12) 5-J.Winston pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – DEN 7
- Q2 08:52 FG CLE (8:52) 7-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – DEN 7
- Q2 04:06 TD DEN (4:06) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 20-M.Burton right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – DEN 13
- Q2 01:52 TD DEN (1:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 15-N.Bonitto [99-Z.Allen] at DEN 29. 15-N.Bonitto for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – DEN 20
- Q2 00:17 TD CLE (:17) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – DEN 21
- Q3 10:12 TD DEN (10:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 19-M.Mims for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson]. CLE 17 – DEN 27
- Q3 10:01 TD CLE (10:01) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – DEN 28
- Q3 01:55 FG DEN (1:55) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CLE 25 – DEN 31
- Q4 09:00 TD CLE (9:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 24-N.Chubb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 31 – DEN 31
- Q4 02:57 FG DEN (2:57) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. CLE 32 – DEN 34
- Q4 01:59 TD DEN (1:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at CLE 44. 29-J.McMillian for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 32 – DEN 40
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 56%
(13:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to CLE 2, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 16-J.Darden to CLE 10 for 8 yards (26-D.Key).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%
(10:21) 7-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to CLE 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(14:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to DEN 38, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%
(8:52) 7-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to CLE 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to DEN 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 19-M.Mims to DEN 33 for 10 yards (20-P.Strong).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 30%
(13:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to DEN 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 62%
(12:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to CLE 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-26-D.Key.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(10:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to DEN 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-M.Ford.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CLE 29, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 16-J.Darden ran ob at CLE 29 for no gain (52-J.Elliss).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 28%
(6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to DEN 4, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-59-W.Reid.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%
(1:55) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(:03) 5-J.Winston right guard to CLE 40 for 1 yard (55-C.Barton; 92-D.Tillman).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(12:48) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. CLE-31-M.Ford was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 9 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EPp(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%
(2:57) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 34%
(1:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 41 for 16 yards (55-C.Barton).
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