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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 17 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to DEN 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP