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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 61

Denver Broncos 21 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to CLE 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-26-D.Key.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.28 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP