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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 7-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model