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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 17 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to DEN 8, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-31-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.49 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model