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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 25 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to DEN 4, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-59-W.Reid.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model