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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 18

Denver Broncos 28 – Cleveland Browns 25

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model