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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 25 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(:03) 5-J.Winston right guard to CLE 40 for 1 yard (55-C.Barton; 92-D.Tillman).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.00 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model