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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 25 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback. CLE-31-M.Ford was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model