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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 9

Denver Broncos 31 – Cleveland Browns 32

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +3.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.19 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP