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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 32 – Denver Broncos 41

What Actually Happened

(1:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy to CLE 41 for 16 yards (55-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.78 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.05 EP