4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 70

Denver Broncos 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to CLE 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.35 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model