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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to NE 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-M.Jones to NE 42 for 19 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model