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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
Sunday 2024-12-01 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

IND
47.2%
NE
52.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Drake Maye (NE) -0.087 vs Joe Flacco (IND) -0.071 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 20
–
NE 21
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

IND

Tanor Bortolini C Out Concussion
Josh Downs WR Out Shoulder
Ashton Dulin WR Out Ankle
Braden Smith T Out Not injury related - personal matter
Alec Pierce WR Questionable Foot

NE

Cole Strange G Out Knee
Demario Douglas WR Questionable Ankle
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Christian Elliss LB Questionable Knee
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Knee
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Shoulder
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Knee
Jaquelin Roy DT Questionable Neck
Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Knee
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 25
–
NE 24

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:15 FG NE (9:15) 13-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. IND 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 05:07 TD IND (5:07) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 28-J.Taylor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-C.Elliss]. IND 6 – NE 3
  • Q1 00:46 FG NE (:46) 13-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. IND 7 – NE 6
  • Q2 12:54 FG NE (12:54) 13-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. IND 7 – NE 9
  • Q2 08:39 TD IND (8:39) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – NE 9
  • Q2 04:07 TD NE (4:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – NE 15
  • Q3 07:29 FG IND (7:29) 7-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 17 – NE 16
  • Q4 08:48 TD NE (8:48) (Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 17 – NE 22
  • Q4 00:17 TD IND (:17) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – NE 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (9:15) 13-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (:46) 13-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 65%

    (12:54) 13-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:10) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to NE 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-M.Jones to NE 42 for 19 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (:20) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (7:29) 7-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 12 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to NE 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 12 yards (41-G.Stuard).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to IND 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 6-A.Gould to IND 20 for 3 yards (16-S.Takitaki).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox to NE 49 for 11 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 52%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end ran ob at NE 35 for 6 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.