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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 7

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 7-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 7, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP