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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end ran ob at NE 35 for 6 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.49 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model