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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 14-A.Pierce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.91 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model