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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 13

New England Patriots 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:46) 13-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model