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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to LAC 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.22 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP