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Los Angeles Chargers

8-4 HC Jim Harbaugh
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

6-6 HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2024-12-01 · 13:00 ET Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LAC
43.1%
ATL
56.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • ATL on 8 more days rest than LAC
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Kirk Cousins (ATL): +0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: -0.005 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LAC 25 18–32
–
ATL 26 19–33
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

LAC

J.K. Dobbins RB Out Knee
Alohi Gilman S Out Hamstring
Cam Hart CB Out Ankle
Denzel Perryman LB Out Groin
Daiyan Henley LB Questionable Calf

ATL

Jase McClellan RB Out Knee
Mike Hughes CB Out Neck

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 17
–
ATL 13

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:04 TD ATL (4:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 01:43 FG LAC (1:43) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – ATL 7
  • Q2 11:14 FG LAC (11:14) 11-C.Dicker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – ATL 7
  • Q2 01:02 FG LAC (1:02) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 9 – ATL 7
  • Q3 07:28 FG ATL (7:28) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. LAC 9 – ATL 10
  • Q3 01:49 TD LAC (1:49) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at LAC 39. 29-T.Still for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 15 – ATL 10
  • Q3 00:07 FG ATL (:07) 6-Y.Koo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. LAC 17 – ATL 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (8:37) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 17 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%

    (1:43) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 76%

    (11:14) 11-C.Dicker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to LAC 21, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (1:02) 11-C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%

    (:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LAC 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:28) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 90%

    (7:28) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:30) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to ATL 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 26-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 10 yards (58-S.Quarterman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 36%

    (3:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney pushed ob at LAC 45 for 5 yards (22-E.Molden).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 61%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at LAC 39. 29-T.Still for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (:07) 6-Y.Koo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:09) (Punt formation) 16-J.Scott pass short right to 84-S.Smartt pushed ob at LAC 39 for 3 yards (32-K.King).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (10:23) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 5-D.London pushed ob at LAC 9 for 5 yards (7-K.Fulton).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:19) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 26-A.Williams to ATL 25 for 14 yards (84-S.Smartt; 31-N.Niemann). PENALTY on ATL-35-N.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 11.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 73%

    (:47) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 24. 3-D.James to LAC 26 for 2 yards.

    See the full breakdown →