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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model