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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(3:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney pushed ob at LAC 45 for 5 yards (22-E.Molden).

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model