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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at LAC 39. 29-T.Still for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model