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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 26-A.Williams to ATL 25 for 14 yards (84-S.Smartt; 31-N.Niemann). PENALTY on ATL-35-N.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.02 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model