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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 11-C.Dicker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model