Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 62

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to DAL 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 16 for no gain (35-A.Green). FUMBLES (35-A.Green), and recovers at DAL 13.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.95 EP
76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model