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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Thursday 2024-11-28 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

NYG
51.7%
DAL
48.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Cooper Rush (DAL) -0.087 vs Drew Lock (NYG) -0.011 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Drew Lock in place of Tommy DeVito)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
DAL 21
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NYG

Jermaine Eluemunor T Out Quadricep
Armon Watts DT Out Shoulder
Tommy DeVito QB Questionable Right Forearm
Deonte Banks CB Questionable Rib

DAL

Caelen Carson CB Out Shoulder
Jake Ferguson TE Out Concussion
Zack Martin G Out Ankle
Asim Richards T Out Ankle
Marshawn Kneeland DE Doubtful Knee
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Groin
Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Groin
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 20
–
DAL 27

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:46 FG DAL (9:46) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYG 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 03:09 TD NYG (3:09) 75-J.Ezeudu reported in as eligible. 29-T.Tracy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – DAL 3
  • Q2 11:48 FG DAL (11:48) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYG 7 – DAL 6
  • Q2 11:37 TD DAL (11:37) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 26-D.Singletary INTERCEPTED by 13-D.Overshown at NYG 23. 13-D.Overshown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – DAL 12
  • Q2 03:25 FG NYG (3:25) 9-G.Gano 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – DAL 13
  • Q3 11:44 TD DAL (11:44) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – DAL 19
  • Q3 04:27 TD DAL (4:27) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – DAL 26
  • Q4 13:39 FG NYG (13:39) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 13 – DAL 27
  • Q4 02:23 TD NYG (2:23) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – DAL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (9:46) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 36%

    (6:47) 29-T.Tracy left guard to DAL 44 for 6 yards (28-M.Hooker; 26-D.Bland).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (11:48) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 20 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to DAL 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 16 for no gain (35-A.Green). FUMBLES (35-A.Green), and recovers at DAL 13.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:21) 79-M.Waletzko reported in as eligible. 40-H.Luepke right guard to DAL 44 for no gain (98-D.Davidson).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%

    (6:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to DAL 1, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-35-A.Green.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:22) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to NYG 49, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at DAL 29 for 22 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (3:25) 9-G.Gano 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NYG 7, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 14 for 7 yards (43-K.Hall).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:36) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to DAL 34, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 34 for no gain (88-B.Ford-Wheaton).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 34%

    (1:12) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:30) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to DAL 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%

    (13:39) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 44%

    (10:00) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:06) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to DAL 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 49%

    (4:47) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback.