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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 56

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 79-M.Waletzko reported in as eligible. 40-H.Luepke right guard to DAL 44 for no gain (98-D.Davidson).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model