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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 42

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to DAL 1, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-35-A.Green.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.59 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model