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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 98

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to NYG 49, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at DAL 29 for 22 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford).

The Three Options

GO -3.58 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 98, worth -6.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model