4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to NYG 7, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 14 for 7 yards (43-K.Hall).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.64 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model