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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 88

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to DAL 34, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 34 for no gain (88-B.Ford-Wheaton).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model