4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth +0.56 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP