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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 29

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model