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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 27 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.28 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model