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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 80

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to DAL 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model